Historically, Q3 tends to fall behind the year’s previous quarters in terms of U.S. music streaming growth, as a combination of factors collide, including album release schedules and consumer streaming behaviors in the summer.
But this year, Q3 year-over-year domestic streaming growth has outpaced both Q1 and Q2, providing a welcome late-year boost amid an overall slower 2025.
U.S. On-Demand Audio (ODA) streams in Q3 had grown 5.3% — for reference, Luminate’s 2025 Midyear Music Report showed YoY growth for Q2 at +4.6%. This reversal stands out even more when contrasted with international markets, where Q3 growth remained steady rather than surging, rising 12.2% YTD vs. last year — but without a Q3 acceleration.
So why did the U.S. buck its own seasonal pattern this year? The explanation comes down to three factors centered around Pop music’s release timing and its influence on total streaming volume.
1. The Shadow of “Pop Girl Spring” in Q2 2024
Gazing back to the second quarter of 2024 reveals the first possible explanation for the rebound. That particular period was stacked with major album releases from the likes of Taylor Swift, Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish and Gracie Abrams, with media outlets hailing the influx of new female-driven sounds during that period as “Pop Girl Spring.”
The surge in activity inflated the 2024 baseline, creating a tougher YoY comparison for Q2 2025. As a result, streams of U.S. Pop in Q2 2025 fell below the previous year for seven separate periods (weeks 17-18, 20-21 and 23-25). This temporary decline set the stage for an outsize bounce once strong new releases arrived.
2. A Softer Q2 2025 Pop Release Schedule
Between “Pop Girl Spring” and “Brat Summer,” 2024 was a notably blockbuster time for new music. This year, meanwhile, has been noticeably more subdued on pop culture-dominating releases. Because 2025’s Q2 Pop lineup wasn’t as powerful as 2024’s, the stream count ultimately couldn’t match its momentum.
U.S. current music streaming was -3.3% at midyear, a slight softening compared with the same period last year. By the end of Q3, that decline had narrowed to -1.9%, reflecting how the market began recovering.
This softer Q2 created space for Q3 to show a more dramatic positive swing.
3. A Strong Q3 Release Calendar, Boosted by Pop and K-pop
Despite a slower year for music, Q3 2025 finally saw some heavy-hitter album releases. Beginning in week 28 — coinciding with Justin Bieber’s Swag — Pop staged a meaningful comeback.
Among the top U.S. Pop Q3 debuts:
- Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend (366.3K first-week consumption activity)
- Justin Bieber, Swag (162.6K)
- TWICE, This Is For (79.7K)
And of course, the cultural phenomenon of KPop Demon Hunters and its accompanying soundtrack generated 1.9B U.S. ODA streams in Q3 alone, further fueling the rebound. The album tracks dominated the U.S. rankings, landing seven songs in the national Top 10 for Q3.
Why the U.S. Stands Apart
As for why the Q3 rebound is uniquely American, international markets didn’t experience quite the same surge from Taylor Swift’s Q2 2024 release, so they didn’t need to “recover” in Q3 2025. And while Demon Hunters performed globally, its streaming intensity was higher in the States, further amplifying U.S. growth.
Still, the U.S.’ late-year streaming bump potentially lays the groundwork for a promising 2026. For more insight on how the music industry performed in 2025 and what that means for the future, look out for Luminate’s 2025 Year-End Music Report, coming Jan. 14.
